From an NBA draft perspective, one of the most intriguing position battles in the new-look ACC came on Saturday, when North Carolina’s Marcus Paige faced off against Louisville’s backcourt tandem of Chris Jones and Terry Rozier.

Under Rick Pitino, the Cardinals have deployed an aggressive, trapping full-court defense that tries to speed up the other team’s guards and force a frenetic up-and-down pace that often makes life uncomfortable for even the most trusted college ball-handlers. If Paige could handle the pressure of Louisville’s guards and control the tempo of the game, UNC would have a good chance of pulling off the modest upset at the Dean Dome.

Few players came into the season with more publicity and higher expectations than Paige, the ACC preseason Player of the Year. After a breakout season as a sophomore, Paige was expected to be one of the best players in the country, the latest in a long line of great point guards — from Kirk Hinrich to Ray Felton and Ty Lawson — for Roy Williams. Instead, he is having a statistically underwhelming season and his numbers have regressed across the board:

2013–14: 17.5 points, 4.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals on 44 percent shooting, 39 percent from 3.

2014–15: 13.3 points, 3.6 assists, 2.2 rebounds and 1.0 steals on 37 percent shooting, 35 percent from 3

While Paige’s stock has been sliding this season, Rozier’s has been rising just as quickly. After backing up Russ Smith and averaging 11 minutes a game as a freshman, Rozier has been one of the most improved players in the country as a sophomore, thriving in a bigger role as a starter.

2013–14: 7.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.0 steals on 40 percent shooting, 37 percent from 3

2014–15: 17.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.4 steals on 46 percent shooting, 30 percent from 3

Saturday’s game ultimately came down to the two star point guards exchanging baskets in the final moments, with Paige getting the last laugh on a running floater with less than 10 seconds on the clock to give UNC the 71–70 victory:

Despite Paige’s heroics, there’s no question who won the individual match-up over the course of the game. Paige went down with an ankle injury late in the second half before returning to hit the game-winning shot, but Rozier had the better overall line in Chapel Hill:

Paige: 10 points, two rebounds, three assists and four turnovers on 12 shots

Rozier: 25 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals and one turnover on 21 shots

They didn’t guard each other the whole game, but when they were matched up, it was clear that Rozier (6-foot-2, 190 pounds and a 6-foot-6 wingspan) had an edge in terms of size and athleticism over Paige (6-foot-1, 175 pounds and a 6-foot-4 wingspan). In this sequence, Rozier goes right through Paige to get into the lane:

On defense, Rozier and Jones were all over Paige, preventing him from getting easy jumpers. With the entire Louisville defense geared towards stopping him, Paige was forced into a bunch of tough, low-percentage shots:

Rozier, like Russ Smith before him, serves as the tip of the spear in Louisville’s defense. His long arms and quick hands make him a perfect fit for Pitino’s scheme, as he is constantly wreaking havoc on the perimeter and creating loose balls. Once he forces a turnover, he can instantly go from defense to offense, running the fast-break and creating a shot for himself or one of his teammates:

Rozier’s athleticism allows him to play much bigger than his size and match up with bigger shooting guards on defense. In this sequence, he boxes out Brice Johnson and clears the defensive glass himself before starting the break:

Where Rozier has gotten much better as a sophomore is his ability to score in the half court. He doesn’t always have to take the ball to the front of the rim — he has become a much more consistent outside shooter, which makes him almost impossible to guard. When Terry Rozier is hitting step-back jumpers, there isn’t much a guy like Marcus Paige can do stop him:

The tricky part for Rozier has been learning to play without the ball in his hands, a necessary skill for anyone playing next to Chris Jones, who loves to pound the dribble. Defenses don’t really respect Rozier when he is spotting up on the perimeter, leaving him with free looks from the three-point line for most of the game. He is shooting only 30 percent from deep on the season, and he was just 1-of-7 on three-point shots against UNC.

Paige, as the only consistent three-point shooter in the UNC rotation, has the opposite problem. Instead of guys giving him too much space on the perimeter, he never has any room to breathe, since opposing teams don’t have to respect his teammates’ shooting ability when he has the ball. It is a weird situation for a point guard to be in, since Paige doesn’t have a lot guys he can set up for open shots. As a result, he is forced to take too many contested jumpers, which has affected his percentages this season.

Paige is a very creative offensive player with a knack for scoring off the dribble, but it’s hard for him to score consistently when he doesn’t have any driving lanes to the rim. Shooting is at a premium in college basketball, especially at North Carolina, where Paige has almost made as many three-pointers (37) as the rest of the team combined (39).