New York Jets QBs: Consistently Inconsistent

So, what do you do when you’re a historically wayward franchise with a perennial hole at your most important position, anyway?

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If there is an overarching theme uniting decades of quarterback play from the New York Jets, it’s definitely inconsistency.

Even when the Jets have found success, it has never lasted long. New York’s (New Jersey’s?) other team excels at finding new, exciting ways to ruin quarterbacks. They’ve lost them to injury, they’ve had young ones fail to achieve their potential, and they’ve handed the position over to examples who probably had little business even being on an NFL roster. The Jets don’t discriminate — they love bad quarterbacking of all shapes and sizes.

It’s been the same story over and over again — from Joe Namath to Richard Todd, from to Ken O’Brien to Vinny Testaverde, and from Chad Pennington all the way to Mark Sanchez. The name, number, and facial hair might change, but the end result never does. No matter what they do, the Jets seemingly can’t help but foul up their most important position.

It’s a New York cultural staple as constant as the yellow cabs and exorbitant rents.

This season, as the Jets emerge from the Rex Ryan era coming off a second straight year of mediocrity from incumbent QB Geno Smith, 2015 feels like a precarious situation for the franchise. After spending big money to patch up a porous secondary (bringing back Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie), it’s not a stretch to believe that the Jets might be able to compete for an AFC playoff spot — if their quarterback is capable of consistently playing up to the level of “not terrible.”

It’s a familiar narrative in the Big Apple. Back in 2009 and 2010, the Jets played in consecutive AFC Championship Games. They did so riding a top-flight defense and by getting just enough out of Sanchez, whose primary objective was to not be a complete laughingstock.

Unlike those two campaigns, however, these Jets don’t have elite offensive line play to rely upon. Center Nick Mangold and left tackle D’Brickshaw Ferguson are still around, but age has weathered them, and their surrouding cast has taken several steps back. There’s no Damien Woody at right tackle, no Brandon Moore at right guard and neither Pete Kendall or Alan Faneca occupy the left guard slot. Though New York’s offensive line was solid last season, there’s a pretty sizable gap between “elite” and “solid.”

Of course, the easiest way, by far, to hide a mediocre quarterback is with a vibrant running game. The Jets don’t have that, either.

New York’s pass-catching arsenal is well-stocked. The wide receiver tandem of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker is the best the Jets have put together since the esteemed Flight Boys’ Crew of Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and Jerricho Cotchery. If tight end Jace Amaro improves in his second year in the league, the Jets have actually three formidable targets for a their quarterback to rely upon. Marshall is 6’4, 229 pounds, Decker is 6’3, 206 pounds, and Amaro towers over both at a hulking 6’5, 265 pounds. In coaching terms, this season’s Jumbo Jets should be a “matchup nightmare” for opposing defenses — especially in the red zone.

Last year, the Jets’ biggest issue as an offense was their inability to take advantage of red zone opportunities. According to teamrankings.com, New York converted an NFL-worst 36.17 percent of its red zone chances into touchdowns. Every other NFL team managed to crack the 40% mark. This isn’t a new problem, either — the Jets ranked 27th in this category in 2013, and 25th in 2012. The last time the Jets thrived in the red zone was way back in 2011, when they ranked second. New York needn’t ascend to those conversionary-heights to find success, but with three capable, big-bodied targets, there’s no excuse for its offense not to see significant improvement inside the 20, and overall.

Which leaves, again, the team’s biggest question: who will be the Jet quarterback to take advantage of his weapons?

Assuming New York is unable to get its hands on Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota with the sixth overall pick (or by trading up), the team has two realistic choices. Smith, the returning starter, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, the veteran brought in to compete with him. Among fans, there seems to be a groundswell of support for Fitzpatrick and a strong negative vibe surrounding Smith.

Though such a sentiment is largely unfounded, no one is suggesting that Smith is some kind of world-beater. But the West Virginia product did show progress in many key categories last season. The 13 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and 2,525 pass yards don’t seem like anything to jump for joy about, but if you dig a little deeper there are signs he’s heading in the right direction.

Smith’s completion percentage jumped from 55.8 percent as a rookie to 59.7 percent in year two. His TD percentage improved from 2.7 percent to 3.5 percent, his interception rate dropped from 4.7 percent to 3.5 percent, and his sack percentage fell from 8.8 percent to 7.1 percent. He also accomplished such improvement while going up against pass defenses with an average DVOA — a method of evaluating teams, units, or players that takes every single play during the NFL season, and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation — of 16, including two games against the Bills (1st), two versus the Patriots (12th), and one each versus the Broncos (5th) and the Lions (8th).

Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Fitzpatrick remains the same average to below average player he’s been his entire career.

Last season, Fitz’s situation was pretty much the antithesis of Smith’s. His numbers, on the surface, look pretty damn good — 63.1 percent completion percentage, 17 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions. His 5.4 percent TD rate and 2.6 percent INT rate were considerably better than his career marks of 4.2 percent and 3.5% percent, respectively.

But a look underneath the hood shows that Fitzpatrick didn’t exactly learn to be a good QB last year. The competition he faced was horrendous, and that’s being kind. The average DVOA Fitzpatrick went up against in 2014 was 20.7. In six games against the Titans (twice), Eagles, Steelers, Raiders and Redskins he compiled 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. The average pass DVOA ranking of those five teams was 27.2.

In the other games Fitzpatrick played — versus an average pass DVOA of 14.2 — he looked like a career backup, totaling three touchdowns and five interceptions. In fact, he only played two games against pass defenses rated 10th or better in DVOA (Bills and Colts) plus another game versus the 17th ranked Jaguars. Every other team he played against last season was rated 20th or worse.

At this point, Fitzpatrick is ten years into his NFL career. This is what we’ve got, folks, and there’s no practical reason to hope it gets any better. It’s really a matter of knowing what Fitzpatrick is, while Smith, who will be entering his third year, at least comes with the potential for something more.

When it’s all said and done, the safe bet is that neither Smith nor Fitzpatrick is the answer to the Jets’ long-standing quarterback problem.

Right now, however, unless something wacky happens in the draft, there are no other short-term solutions. The sensible decision would be to go with Smith, and it looks like new head coach Todd Bowles is leaning in that direction. It’s far more likely that Smith improve at his age than it is that Fitzpatrick replicates his dream season without another slate of cream puffs on the schedule.

This Jets’ offseason has been all about quick fixes and Band-Aids. Unfortunately, once again, for the franchise to get the most out of its taped-together improvisation, it will have to exercise a lot of patience (and receive a lot of luck) when it comes to the game’s most important position.