NFL Head Coaches Hired In The Last Decade: What the Data Says
Unfortunately for many optimistic fans, a change of head coach often isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
After a disappointing season(s), we fans always welcome new coaches as something resembling saviors — the quick-fix solution to all our franchise’s problems. This, despite what history has told us time and again.
After all, it’s easy to forget that Bill Belichick disciple Eric Mangini was going to bring New England Patriots-like success to the New York Jets, that Joe Philbin would turn Ryan Tannehill into Aaron Rodgers, and that Dennis Allen would restore the Oakland Raiders’ Commitment to Excellence. Each time a new coach is hired, we get excited that he will take our team to, at the very least, many playoff appearances. However, on average, this is not the case.
Since the 2005 offseason, there have been 75 new coaches hired in the NFL. Of those, 49 (65 percent) already have been fired. Of course, 10 seasons is a lot to expect from any new coaching hire, but the majority of coaches hired every season from 2005–12 have since been canned. The 49 that were fired lasted fewer than three years on average, and 30 of them never even made the playoffs before being canned.
Yearly coaching hire data*
Despite all the new hires, success looks like flipping a coin; 36 coaches (48 percent) fared better than their predecessors when it comes to win percentage, while the rest had an equal or worse win percentage.
On average, there are six or seven coaching changes per year. The 2006 and 2009 seasons were landmark years, with 10 and 11 coaching changes (only one of which was to replace a retiring coach). All 11 of the coaches hired in 2009 have since been fired. This class includes former hotshot coordinators like Todd Haley and Undefeated Patriots-killer Steve Spagnuolo. Only Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton (for now) remain from the 2006 class.
Despite the excitement about coaching changes this year, we’ve only seen six coaching changes (so far), with another one or two likely coming. This would put the 2016 hiring season in line with the historical average for changes.
Coaches hired per year:
Teams on average have had two or three coaching changes since the 2005 offseason. Only two franchises haven’t had a coaching change:
Cincinnati Bengals — Marvin Lewis (hired in 2003, 54 percent win percentage)
New England Patriots — Bill Belichick (hired in 2000, 74 percent win percentage)
Two franchises, Cleveland and Oakland, have had six coaching changes (the maximum in the sample)
Number of teams with given coaching changes:
Interim coaches have had a pretty decent shot at getting the full-time job. Out of 24 interim coaches, five were hired for the full-time gig. Given the amount of coaches teams typically interview, those odds aren’t bad, since teams will survey the whole league (and the college ranks), then bring in multiple candidates.
Reaching the playoffs gives you almost an extra two-and-a-half seasons of leeway, on average. Coaches that didn’t reach the playoffs during their tenure lasted for 2.1 seasons. Coaches that reached the playoffs during their tenure lasted about 4.4 seasons.
The 2006 coaching class was very successful, although only two of the 10 hired coaches remain. Six of the 10 hired coaches took their teams to the playoffs. McCarthy and Payton won a Super Bowl, and the whole cohort stuck around for over four and a half seasons and counting (longer than all but one coaching cohort).
Teams aren’t getting more trigger happy and firing coaches after one year. There is on average only a single ‘one and done’ — defined as a coach who only got one full season, including those fired midway through their second year— coach per year. There have been 12 since the 2005 offseason, and the Raiders and Niners have accounted for five of them (three and two).
Conclusion
Hopefully this calms you down a bit if you wanted a coaching change and didn’t get it. At the same time, those of you looking forward to the next coach should probably temper your expectations a bit. After all, there was a time when Romeo Crennel and Joe Philbin were two of the hottest coaching candidates on the market. Ultimately, you never know how it will work out until they put on the khakis and headset for your team.
If you’d like to view the data I used for this article, you can view the Google Doc via this link. I welcome any corrections or comments.
*Coaches fired in the middle of the year get counted as following calendar year’s firing. For example, even though Joe Philbin was fired mid-season on Oct. 5, 2015, the Miami Dolphins are counted as one of the six 2016 head coaching changes. Data excludes interim coach record for interim coaches hired.
