#TrustTheProcess — Our NBA All-Star Selection Process, That Is
As basketball’s midseason spectacle draws near, which 24 deserving players should make the cut?
It’s All Star time! The mid-season NBA break is just around the corner, and the fans, media, and players have already chosen the five starters for each conference. That leaves 14 spots for All Star reserves, seven from the West and seven from the East. Who should they go to?
Here are some key All Star criteria:
- Winning matters. Good stats are nice, but they mean more if you’re helping your team to a great record.
- Defense matters. It won’t matter at the actual event, but it’s half of the game and it matters when selecting worthy All Stars.
- Playing time matters. All Stars should be on the court. If you missed 10 games or play 25 minutes a game, that’s 300 fewer minutes of production.
- Efficiency matters, but it must be paired with usage. Three-and-D wings who knock down four jumpers a game are great, but the slightly-less-efficient guard with the ball in his hands is a more deserving All Star.
- Star power matters, at least a little. All Stars should be deserving, but star power is a worthy tiebreaker if need be. This is entertainment after all.
We’ll stick with the NBA’s format. Fans, media, and players voted in ten starters; we’re stuck with them. That leaves seven reserves for each conference — two guards, three frontcourt players, and two wildcards.
Off we go!
Eastern guards
Starters: Kyrie Irving, DeMar DeRozan
Let’s get one thing straight. This was by far the worst outcome of the fan, media, and player vote. Neither Irving nor DeRozan should be starters, and DDR certainly isn’t the right Raptor guard.
That’s because Kyle Lowry is the best guard in the East, and it’s not even close. In fact, he’s probably the third best guard in the entire league this year. Take a look at these two seasons from Basketball Reference:
The seasons are are remarkably similar, though the top row is slightly better across the board. The bottom row is Kyle Lowry. The other stats belong to 2015 MVP Stephen Curry. That’s how good Lowry has been so far, playing at an MVP-level and shooting with Curry-esque efficiency. He is far and away the best guard in the East, and it’s a traveshamockery that he won’t be starting.
A handful of Eastern guards are having good but not great seasons. Avery Bradley, Nic Batum, and Brad Beal are nice two-way players. Goran Dragic is quietly having a strong season for a bad Heat team. Dwyane Wade certainly got a lot of fan votes. None of them are really in the mix here.
This is a three-way battle between Isaiah Thomas, John Wall, and Kemba Walker. Kemba Walker is having a terrific season and continues to steadily improve each year, now with a knockdown jumper too. Isaiah Thomas has lit the NBA on fire, averaging 29 points a game and leading the league in 4th quarter points. He is playing at a higher level than a similarly tiny star Allen Iverson. John Wall hasn’t shot as well as IT, but he creates almost 11 more points per game with his passing and he’s carried a much worse Wizards roster to within a couple games of the Celtics.
Both are worthy picks here, but the tiebreaker goes to John Wall because of the other half of the game: defense. Thomas is dead last among all NBA players in defensive efficiency, while Wall is a perennial contender for the NBA’s All-Defense teams. He gets the nod, but IT gets a wildcard spot.
Reserve guards: Kyle Lowry, John Wall
Eastern frontcourt
Starters: LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler
We got one right! LeBron is an All Star until he falls apart, and Greek Freak has made the leap. He and Jimmy Butler would be MVP candidates any normal year but are toiling on teams fighting to stay above .500.
After those three, the Eastern frontcourt is the weakest position in the league. The one slam dunk is Kevin Love. Love is putting up 21 points and 11 boards, and he’s shooting better than ever and defending well, an easy pick.
Carmelo Anthony is not deserving. Jabari Parker is putting up similar numbers but shooting better. Both come up short. Otto Porter and Jae Crowder are terrific defenders that score efficiently, but with less usage than their peers. Both are invaluable to their respective teams’ success but that doesn’t make them All Stars.
There’s a slew of interesting centers in the East. Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond are both around 14 points and 13 rebounds a game with strong defense, but neither feels like they’re having a peak year. Hassan Whiteside’s numbers are even stronger but his advanced metrics are lacking. Brook Lopez leads the crew in points and assists but doesn’t rebound or play defense. Myles Turner and Kristaps Porzingis are over 40% downtown and future All Stars, but the future may not be here yet. Both need a bit of a bigger role.
The Eastern center with the best case? That would be Joel Embiid. The Process is putting up 20 points and 8 boards a night in just 25 minutes, and he’s transformed Philadelphia into a very good defense and one of the league’s most watchable teams. But he’s still on a minutes limit and has missed 14 games. That’s a lot of potential All Star minutes missed.
The other forwards out East are familiar names, though not as new and exciting. Al Horford has been terrific with his new team in Boston, but he missed ten games and the Celtics are lacking toughness and rim protection, two things he was supposed to help provide. Paul George has been a bit disappointing this year along with Indiana. His defense has fallen off and he’s missed a handful of games. Not quite the same scorer as PG13, Paul Millsap has been better at everything else and has kept Atlanta near the top of the East. He gets the nod.
The final spot comes down to Horford, George, or Embiid. Doesn’t it feel like it should be Embiid? He’s only missed a few more games than the others, and he just feels more like an All Star this year. He would join Blake Griffin and Yao Ming as the only rookies since Tim Duncan to make the All Star team. It feels like he’s making that big of an impact, single-handedly changing opinions of Philly’s tanking process. He’s in.
Reserve forwards: Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Joel Embiid
Eastern wildcards
We already gave the first wildcard spot to Isaiah Thomas.
The final spot comes down to Kemba Walker, Paul George, Al Horford, or another center. Charlotte has the fourth best point differential in the East and deserves an All Star. Truthfully Kemba has as good a case as the two guys already voted onto the team, so it’d be a real shame if he gets left out.
Eastern reserves: Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Joel Embiid
Western guards
Starters: James Harden, Stephen Curry
You could devote an entire column (or twenty) to Russell Westbrook and what he’s doing this season. He could play two full games without recording a single point, rebound, or assist and he would still be averaging a triple double for the season. He should obviously be on the team, and he should be starting over Curry.
The Western guard pool isn’t as deep as you think, partly because of a lot of injuries to the top contenders. Chris Paul has been absurdly good on both ends, the best point guard defender in the league and better offensively than Curry. The Clippers are 27–10 with him (a 60–win pace) and 3–7 without (25-win pace). He is absolutely the second Western guard choice right now even without those ten games, but we need an injury replacement.
Two other guards have been awesome but injured, as well. George Hill has been better than Utah could have even hoped and the Jazz have been unstoppable with him at point, but he’s missed half the season. Mike Conley is always a bridesmaid in these All Star conversations. He is a B+ at everything on both ends. That might finally have been enough this year but then he missed 11 games too, games the Grizzlies won without him.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are in the conversation, combining for almost 50 points a game for the disappointing Blazers. C.J. has shot better while Dame has higher numbers and a heavier workload. Both are terrible defensively. Klay Thompson is doing his thing, scoring 21 points a game on a slew of wide-open shots. His defense has been worse this year, though, and it feels like he ought to be doing more on that end with Durant around, not less.
Honestly, these spots should just belong to Russ and CP3. It doesn’t necessarily feel like any other Western guard should be a definite All Star. Lillard is posting All Star numbers at one end of the court, so he’s the pick.
Reserve guards: Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul (Damian Lillard)
Western frontcourt
Starters: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis
Again, we got the frontcourt starters right. Durant and Kawhi are the best players on the best teams in the league. There’s a sizable drop off in team play to Anthony Davis, but that’s not his fault at 29 points, 12 boards, and 4 combined steals and blocks per game.
The Western forwards are an absolute dogfight. Nine more are in the conversation, and with apologies to Joel Embiid, all nine would be deserving All Stars if they played in the East. The one lock is DeMarcus Cousins. He could scarcely have less help and still carries the Kings with 28 points, 10 boards, and 4 dimes a night. Performances like last night in Cleveland show just how good he can be. #FreeBoogie
The other eight players under consideration are LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, Gordon Hayward, Nikola Jokic, DeAndre Jordan, and Karl-Anthony Towns. They are fighting for just two sure spots, though we’re taking four with the wildcards. It seems likely the coaches may take both Dame and Klay and leave only three spots for the eight players above. Either way, this is where you’ll find your snubs.
Utah is the only team with two players on the list. The Jazz are a game out of the 4-seed even with their usual injuries. They deserve at least one All Star — but which one? Rudy Gobert may be the Defensive Player of the Year while posting efficient offensive numbers. Gordon Hayward has the ball in his hands more and has career-highs in points and rebounds per game with a 22 PER and 60 percent true shooting. Gobert is slightly better by advanced metrics but Hayward simply does more.
Should the Clippers get an All Star as the 4-seed (for now)? DeAndre Jordan has been terrific, but not as good as Gobert. Jordan has been worse on defense and at the line. He would only go as a Clippers representative — but we have CP3 for that.
Draymond Green is a unique case. On one hand, he barely scores double digits and could be the fourth Warrior selected if Klay is there. On the other hand, he is the most indispensable player on the best team in the league, the leading passer on an historic passing team, and the heart and soul of the defense. He is absolutely 100 percent an All Star — but he has a very good chance of getting snubbed. Should be interesting.
The best per-36 numbers belong to Nikola Jokic. Since December, he’s averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, and almost 5 assists a game. He’s been absurd from the mid-range. The problem is the lack of minutes. Jokic has played around 500 fewer minutes than the others he’s being compared to. That’s not a knockout punch against Embiid in the watered-down East, but there are just too many other deserving candidates in the West to select him over guys playing 50 percent more minutes.
Reserve guards: Boogie Cousins, Draymond Green, Gordon Hayward
Western wildcards
That leaves Aldridge, Gasol, Towns, and Gobert.
LaMarcus Aldridge would be a second Spur, and that’s probably his best case. He’s the Mike Conley here, a B+ at everything. That’s just not going to cut it in the West. He traded in his All Star berths for a shot at rings.
It’s so fun to see Marc Gasol healthy and balling out again. He’s at 20 points, 6 boards, and 4 assists and is the center of a top-5 defense, and he has held the Grizzlies together amidst all their usual injuries. It would be criminal to leave both Gasol and Conley off the team. He gets a wildcard spot.
Karl-Anthony Towns feels disappointing after such high expectations, but he’s at 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists a game and has had at least 5–7 KAT!!! League Pass games already. Shaquille O’Neal and Blake Griffin are the only players in history to average 22/12 at age 21. The Timberwolves have been disappointing, but Towns sure hasn’t been.
The final spot out West comes down to Towns or Gobert. It’s a toss-up. Which one would you rather see playing in the All Star Game?
Western reserves: Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard (Chris Paul injury replacement), Boogie Cousins, Draymond Green, Gordon Hayward, Marc Gasol, Karl-Anthony Towns
If you enjoyed this, please recommend by clicking the ❤ so others can enjoy it too. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, & life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
