Why Is Jacksonville’s Running Game So Pitiful?
The Jags’ offseason acquisition of RB Toby Gerhart has been a bust. How much of that is him, and how much is it the schemes around him?
In case you weren’t already aware that running back is a role player in today’s NFL: last spring, the free agent feature back to receive the largest salary ($10.5M) and the largest chunk of guaranteed money ($4.5M) was Toby Gerhart, who moved from the Minnesota Vikings to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
So far, it really looks like the Jaguars would have been wise to spend that money elsewhere. With 123 yards over 48 carries — that’s a desperately low 2.56 yards per carry — Gerhart has easily been the least effective of any of the league’s dedicated starters.
Things didn’t go this way during the first four years of Gerhart’s career, all of which were spent backing up Adrian Peterson on the Vikings. Over his 276 carries as a Viking, Gerhart averaged 4.7 yards per attempt. Just last year, his 7.86 rushing average was the second-best season mark in the Super Bowl era from any running back with at least 30 carries. Gerhart was never going to get his number called on very often with a talent like Peterson next to him in the backfield, but he sure made those chances count.
So what’s happened to Gerhart thus far in Jacksonville? It’s not that his workload has taken a dramatic leap — he’s only received 9.6 carries a game so far, largely because Jacksonville has been forced to pass often to get out from under huge deficits. It’s not that his old, tired legs have suddenly given out — Gerhart’s mark of 276 previous career carries has been eclipsed by Peterson in five of his seven seasons.
After reviewing the tape, I think the issue has less to do with Gerhart’s potentially fluctuating abilities as a runner, and more to do with the new scheme and personnel he finds himself surrounded by in Jacksonville.
Gerhart perhaps faced a natural advantage whenever his number was called in Minnesota: opponents who were used to stacking as many defenders as possible on the line of scrimmage while Peterson was playing could relax and anticipate a pass while Gerhart stood in the backfield.
Here’s an example of the kind of running lane that opened up for Gerhart (wearing #32) last year. Note how the linebackers and secondary are sinking back into coverage, giving Minnesota’s five-man line only four Carolina Panther defenders to deal with:

By contrast, here’s an Adrian Peterson run from the same game. The Panthers defense has totally collapsed in on the line of scrimmage, with eight defenders flooding the gaps:

The Vikings would use the opposing defense’s assumption against them and run Gerhart at unexpected times, in creative ways. In Week 14 last year the Vikings were in a snowstorm against the Baltimore Ravens, running a two-minute drill while trailing, 15–12. With just over 90 seconds to go and Peterson sidelined with injury, the Vikings called Gerhart’s number and he took it 41 yards for a touchdown, breaking tackles along the way:
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By running in an “obvious” pass situation, the Ravens were not pressuring the line of scrimmage, and the Vikings got Gerhart through a gaping hole and into the secondary untouched:

The element of surprise is definitely missing from this year’s Jaguar team. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been in constant fluctuation both last year and this year, with the only veteran presence being former Denver Bronco Zane Beadles at left guard. Luke Joeckel, the Jaguars’ second-overall pick of the 2013 draft, only played in five games last season due to injury before being promoted to starting left tackle at the outset of this season.
As a result, offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch has felt the need to supplement the line with fullbacks, tight ends, even sixth linemen. While the extra blockers will theoretically open up more lanes for Gerhart, all those bodies on the line of scrimmage also signal to the opposing defense that the Jaguars are about to run the ball.
Opponents have decided that they don’t need to worry about a pass when these formations come up, and can afford to give Gerhart the Peterson treatment. Here’s what Gerhart (now wearing #21) faced on his very first run of the year, Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. An eight-man box:

Here’s a seven-man rush from the Pittsburgh Steelers that doesn’t give Gerhart anyplace to run:

It makes Gerhart’s task even more difficult when his blockers blow their assignments, which happens more frequently than any of the Jaguars would like. Here’s tight end Marcedes Lewis allowing defensive end Brandon Graham direct access to the backfield. This play would go for a three-yard loss:

There are three Jaguars on the ground in this picture as a half-dozen members of Washington’s defense converge in on Gerhart:

Not everything about Gerhart’s statistically bleak season has been a lost cause. He excels at breaking through tackles, or at least falling forward through tackles for an extra yard. As a receiver, Gerhart was always a solid option in Minnesota, securing 74.7 percent of his targets, and he has caught all eight of his targets so far in Jacksonville, for career highs in yards per catch and yards per game.
It may turn out that Gerhart functions best in the NFL when he concedes the majority of carries to another running back. While his true talent level probably isn’t that of a running back who gets 7.8 yards a carry, it’s also unlikely that he’ll spend the rest of his career at 2.5 yards a carry. But given the lack of help that Gerhart is receiving from his Jaguars teammates, it’s simply too soon to make that judgment just yet. Gerhart’s 2014 statistics are an ugly sight indeed, but football is a team game.
Salary information via spotrac.com; statistical information via pro-football-reference.com.


